LIBREVILLE – Eighteen months after General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema’s Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) ended the Bongo dynasty’s 55-year rule, Gabon’s economy and political trajectory are defined by a complex narrative of popular optimism meeting structural inertia. For Fortune Afrika readers, the key question is whether the transition is merely cosmetic or if it genuinely offers a new entry point for strategic investment in Central Africa’s oil-rich nation.
The military-led government, under transitional President General Oligui Nguema, has moved decisively to address the widespread frustration that fueled the coup—primarily focusing on corruption and income inequality. Gabon’s economy has long been anomalous: an upper middle-income country with one of the continent’s highest GDP per capita, yet struggling with high poverty (around 34-39%) and severe youth unemployment (around 40%).
The CTRI has prioritized two immediate actions:
Fiscal Transparency: The government has made public finance management a core focus, attempting to correct unrecorded receipts and expenditures from the previous regime and working to repay some internal and external debts.
Addressing Social Woes: There is a visible commitment to social spending, with promises to revive unpaid pensions, reintroduce student grants, and improve dilapidated infrastructure.
However, the transition is not without its critics. While the military government successfully oversaw a new constitution and transition timeline, critics point to the continued presence of ‘known faces’ from the former regime in key positions, suggesting a lack of wholesale change. Furthermore, a strict curfew remains in place, which, while meant to stabilize security, severely impacts the vital nighttime economy, particularly in service industries.
The question of former President Ali Bongo Ondimba and his family has been partially resolved through diplomatic means. Following his initial detention after the August 2023 coup, Ali Bongo was released and, as of May 2025, has gone into exile in Luanda, Angola. His release, along with his family, was reportedly facilitated by diplomatic efforts led by Angolan President João Lourenço, the current head of the African Union.
However, the legal status of the family is more complex. While Ali Bongo is in exile, his wife, Sylvia Bongo Ondimba Valentin, and their son, Noureddin Bongo Valentin, were released from prison and transferred to house arrest, where they await trial on serious charges including massive embezzlement of public money and money-laundering. The continuation of these high-profile legal proceedings signals the CTRI’s intent to pursue accountability for the alleged abuses of the Bongo era.
The response from the World Bank and IMF has been one of cautious engagement, focused on stabilizing the economy and pressing for governance reforms.
World Bank & IMF Assessment
Growth Drivers: The World Bank’s 2025 Economic Update estimated that Gabon’s economy grew by 2.9% in 2024, driven primarily by the oil sector and an uptick in public works spending by the transitional government.Growth is projected to be around 2.4% in the 2025-2027 period.
The Fiscal Challenge: Despite growth, the fiscal position deteriorated sharply in 2024. Lower oil revenues (due to fluctuating global prices) combined with a significant rise in public spending (on social and infrastructure projects) reduced the fiscal balance to an estimated -3.7% of GDP in 2024, down from a surplus in 2023. This has created liquidity pressures and elevated debt risks.
The World Bank’s Stance: The Bank remains committed through its Country Partnership Framework (CPF 2023–2027), which supports job creation and non-oil private sector growth. The core advice is clear: Gabon must urgently pursue governance and business climate reforms to reverse the trend of declining per capita wealth and better leverage its vast natural capital—especially its forests.
While the coup naturally introduced uncertainty, Gabon’s inherent wealth and the CTRI’s clear transition timeline are keeping interest alive.
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan: While neither institution is reported to be making major, immediate sovereign moves due to the political transition risk, the broader sentiment from players like JP Morgan is bullish on the African continent as a whole. JP Morgan has expressed a long-term commitment to Africa and is expanding its footprint and partnerships with the African Development Bank (AfDB). Gabon, as a wealthy, albeit challenging, market within the CEMAC zone, remains on the radar for long-term strategic capital interested in natural resource financing.
FDI Focus: FDI has historically targeted oil, manganese, and timber. The CTRI is actively promoting diversification, notably with the recent start of production at the Belinga iron ore mine and continued investment in Special Economic Zones (SEZs) like Nkok.
Local financial institutions, heavily concentrated and dominated by a few players like BGFI Bank (a large regional group), face the same constraints as before the coup, but with a new layer of optimism regarding government transparency.
Credit Bottlenecks: Local banks continue to report difficulties in obtaining business financing, especially for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). This is primarily due to a lack of guarantees and documentation from businesses, rather than a lack of liquidity in the sector itself.
The Hope: The banking sector’s stability is tied directly to the health of the government and the commodity cycle. The push for greater fiscal transparency and the investment in infrastructure are seen as positive steps that could eventually reduce risk and improve credit access across the entire value chain. However, a significant easing of credit is unlikely until major structural economic and governance reforms are firmly established.
Gabon is currently a country that has hit a reset button. The potential is immense, backed by its standing as the world’s second-most forested nation and its mineral wealth. The opportunity for investors lies not in the quick profit of oil, but in strategic partnerships that align with the non-oil diversification plan—particularly in sustainable forestry, manganese processing, and ecotourism—provided the transitional government can follow through on its promises of structural governance reform and job creation.LIBREVILLE – Eighteen months after General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema’s Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) ended the Bongo dynasty’s 55-year rule, Gabon’s economy and political trajectory are defined by a complex narrative of popular optimism meeting structural inertia. For Fortune Afrika readers, the key question is whether the transition is merely cosmetic or if it genuinely offers a new entry point for strategic investment in Central Africa’s oil-rich nation.
The military-led government, under transitional President General Oligui Nguema, has moved decisively to address the widespread frustration that fueled the coup—primarily focusing on corruption and income inequality. Gabon’s economy has long been anomalous: an upper middle-income country with one of the continent’s highest GDP per capita, yet struggling with high poverty (around 34-39%) and severe youth unemployment (around 40%).
The CTRI has prioritized two immediate actions:
Fiscal Transparency: The government has made public finance management a core focus, attempting to correct unrecorded receipts and expenditures from the previous regime and working to repay some internal and external debts.
Addressing Social Woes: There is a visible commitment to social spending, with promises to revive unpaid pensions, reintroduce student grants, and improve dilapidated infrastructure.
However, the transition is not without its critics. While the military government successfully oversaw a new constitution and transition timeline, critics point to the continued presence of ‘known faces’ from the former regime in key positions, suggesting a lack of wholesale change. Furthermore, a strict curfew remains in place, which, while meant to stabilize security, severely impacts the vital nighttime economy, particularly in service industries.
The question of former President Ali Bongo Ondimba and his family has been partially resolved through diplomatic means. Following his initial detention after the August 2023 coup, Ali Bongo was released and, as of May 2025, has gone into exile in Luanda, Angola. His release, along with his family, was reportedly facilitated by diplomatic efforts led by Angolan President João Lourenço, the current head of the African Union.
However, the legal status of the family is more complex. While Ali Bongo is in exile, his wife, Sylvia Bongo Ondimba Valentin, and their son, Noureddin Bongo Valentin, were released from prison and transferred to house arrest, where they await trial on serious charges including massive embezzlement of public money and money-laundering. The continuation of these high-profile legal proceedings signals the CTRI’s intent to pursue accountability for the alleged abuses of the Bongo era.
The response from the World Bank and IMF has been one of cautious engagement, focused on stabilizing the economy and pressing for governance reforms.
World Bank & IMF Assessment
Growth Drivers: The World Bank’s 2025 Economic Update estimated that Gabon’s economy grew by 2.9% in 2024, driven primarily by the oil sector and an uptick in public works spending by the transitional government.Growth is projected to be around 2.4% in the 2025-2027 period.
The Fiscal Challenge: Despite growth, the fiscal position deteriorated sharply in 2024. Lower oil revenues (due to fluctuating global prices) combined with a significant rise in public spending (on social and infrastructure projects) reduced the fiscal balance to an estimated -3.7% of GDP in 2024, down from a surplus in 2023. This has created liquidity pressures and elevated debt risks.
The World Bank’s Stance: The Bank remains committed through its Country Partnership Framework (CPF 2023–2027), which supports job creation and non-oil private sector growth. The core advice is clear: Gabon must urgently pursue governance and business climate reforms to reverse the trend of declining per capita wealth and better leverage its vast natural capital—especially its forests.
While the coup naturally introduced uncertainty, Gabon’s inherent wealth and the CTRI’s clear transition timeline are keeping interest alive.
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan: While neither institution is reported to be making major, immediate sovereign moves due to the political transition risk, the broader sentiment from players like JP Morgan is bullish on the African continent as a whole. JP Morgan has expressed a long-term commitment to Africa and is expanding its footprint and partnerships with the African Development Bank (AfDB). Gabon, as a wealthy, albeit challenging, market within the CEMAC zone, remains on the radar for long-term strategic capital interested in natural resource financing.
FDI Focus: FDI has historically targeted oil, manganese, and timber. The CTRI is actively promoting diversification, notably with the recent start of production at the Belinga iron ore mine and continued investment in Special Economic Zones (SEZs) like Nkok.
Local financial institutions, heavily concentrated and dominated by a few players like BGFI Bank (a large regional group), face the same constraints as before the coup, but with a new layer of optimism regarding government transparency.
Credit Bottlenecks: Local banks continue to report difficulties in obtaining business financing, especially for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). This is primarily due to a lack of guarantees and documentation from businesses, rather than a lack of liquidity in the sector itself.
The Hope: The banking sector’s stability is tied directly to the health of the government and the commodity cycle. The push for greater fiscal transparency and the investment in infrastructure are seen as positive steps that could eventually reduce risk and improve credit access across the entire value chain. However, a significant easing of credit is unlikely until major structural economic and governance reforms are firmly established.
Gabon is currently a country that has hit a reset button. The potential is immense, backed by its standing as the world’s second-most forested nation and its mineral wealth. The opportunity for investors lies not in the quick profit of oil, but in strategic partnerships that align with the non-oil diversification plan—particularly in sustainable forestry, manganese processing, and ecotourism—provided the transitional government can follow through on its promises of structural governance reform and job creation.
